Complexity: The Hidden Enemy of Progress

In a world where rapid change is the norm, complexity is the silent enemy of execution. Despite their success, many organizations are so entrenched in their existing models and focused on efficiency that they fail to recognize new opportunities when they arise.

This is a classic example of what Herman Kahn described as “the expert problem.” The more educated and experienced someone becomes within a specific framework, the harder it is for them to see solutions outside the framework they were taught to think in. 

Leaders today often excel at yesterday’s skills but struggle to adapt to the demands of tomorrow.

Take Zara as an example. Once a giant in the fast fashion industry, it now faces intense competition from brands like Shein. Zara’s leadership, deeply invested in their existing business model, didn’t anticipate Shein’s meteoric rise.

The automotive industry tells a similar story. Companies like Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and BMW are watching their market share and stock prices decline. Meanwhile, BYD, Tesla, and emerging Chinese automakers are revolutionizing the global car market. 

In places like Dubai, highways are now filled with impressive, high-tech Chinese cars that cost half as much as traditional luxury brands. These established giants failed to anticipate the disruption and are now playing catch-up.

Even institutions renowned for innovation, like NASA, have struggled to stay ahead. Once a symbol of cutting-edge space exploration, NASA now pays $8 billion annually to SpaceX. Why? Because they couldn’t adapt quickly enough to the future of space travel.

And what about the tech kingpins? Google, despite having the technology to pioneer AI breakthroughs like OpenAI, Google held back. They were hesitant to disrupt their existing search business model, a decision that now leaves them scrambling to regain their competitive edge.

The pattern is clear: the more intelligent and successful organizations or individuals become, the harder it is for them to embrace unlearning. Unlearning requires letting go of entrenched identities and frameworks, which can feel nearly impossible for those who have built their success around them.

Yet, unlearning is critical. To thrive in an unpredictable future, leaders and organizations must have the courage to question their assumptions, break free from past successes, and reinvent themselves.

The future doesn’t belong to those who cling to yesterday’s achievements. It belongs to those who dare to evolve, even at the risk of letting go of who they once were.

Note: This blog post is an adaptation of the transcript from the video below, which forms part of my video series on AI.